Dubai property activity rebounds while equity sell-off deepens amid regional tension
Dubai’s physical real estate market is showing resilience, with transaction volumes rebounding sharply the second week of March, even as listed property stocks continue to reprice risk
16 March, 2026
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Two weeks after the onset of regional conflict on February 28, a significant divergence has emerged between Dubai’s physical real estate market and its listed equities.
While property transaction volumes staged a sharp recovery in the second week of March, the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) continued to reprice risk, with real estate stocks extending their slide on heavy trading volumes.
Transactional liquidity defies initial shock
Following an initial “risk-off” pause, the physical property market demonstrated a notable bounce-back.
According to Dubai Land Department (DLD) records analysed by The Real Estate Reports, total transaction value on a headline basis, including land transactions, surged to Dhs15.66bn in the week of March 9–15. This represents a 51 per cent increase in value and a 58 per cent jump in transaction counts over the previous week.

However, a closer look at the data suggests this recovery was primarily volume-driven. When excluding land plots to remove the volatility of high-value land deals:
- Built Value (Ex-land): Grew 13 per cent to Dhs8.26bn.
- Transaction Volume: Rose 56 per cent to 4,327 deals.
The discrepancy between the modest value growth and the surge in volume indicates that while the market remains operational, the average ticket size has softened, a typical signal of a market functioning under a more cautious, broader-based participation.
Off-Plan Remains the Market Anchor
The structural integrity of the market appears to have held. Off-plan sales continued to command the “lion’s share” of activity, accounting for 63 per cent of built property value in Week 2, compared to 66 per cent in the week immediately following the conflict’s start.
The most visible shift within this segment was a rotation toward villas. Off-plan villa sales rose to approximately 23 per cent of the segment’s value (up from 16 per cent), while the ready market similarly saw increased interest in landed homes over commercial assets.
This suggests selective risk-taking by buyers who are prioritising tangible residential assets over more sensitive commercial segments.
The Equity Disconnect: DFM Extends Slide
The resilience in physical transactions stands in stark contrast to the Dubai Financial Market. Since trading resumed on March 4, aided by a temporary 5 per cent limit-down threshold to prevent panic — equities have undergone a sustained de-risking phase.
The DFM General Index (DFMGI) fell 5.7 per cent in the second week of March on a turnover of 1.52 billion shares, nearly double the volume of the prior week. The pain was most acute in the Real Estate Index (DFMREI), which slumped 13.8 per cent last week.
Sentiment vs. The Real Economy
The data highlights a widening gap between sentiment-driven equities and “real economy” property transactions. In the stock market, liquid shares are being sold as investors demand a higher risk premium for regional exposure. In the physical market, the normalisation of mortgage registrations, which nearly doubled to 1,053 in Week 2, suggests that the “plumbing” of the industry remains intact.
While the physical market shows signs of a recovery in activity, the heavy-volume sell-off on the DFM suggests that financial markets may be pricing in a more prolonged period of uncertainty.
For now, Dubai real estate is proving it can operate under pressure, even as its listed counterparts absorb the brunt of the geopolitical shock.
- Ali Shahin is the founder of the The Real Estate Reports and Real Estate Reports Pro, independent platforms that dive into the data driving the property sector in the UAE.





















